Dan Gardner writes in Chapter 3 of his book Future Babble: “Overconfidence is a universal human trait closely related to an equally widespread phenomenon known as ‘optimism bias’.” This overconfidence often leads us to assess our risks poorly. We all…
Everyone knows where the icebergs are
Before the Titanic struck that iceberg almost a century ago, the captain was told that there were icebergs in those waters but dismissed the junior officer’s warning. He was heard saying: “In my thirty years at sea, I’ve never struck…