I reference a post by Beaumont Vance once where he suggests all risk managers should introduce themselves as fortune tellers as cocktail parties. In this recent blog post from Riskview, the author points out:
Criticisms of risk managers for not anticipating some emerging future are overdone. When a major unexpected loss happens, everyone missed it.
Risk managers do not have any special magic ball. The future is just as dim to us as to everyone else.